Predictions and predilections for Election Day

On Tuesday, the nation once again goes to the polls to elect a president, 34 members of the U.S. Senate, and 435 members of the U.S. House. Sophisticated polling methods combined with advanced technology have made it possible to track the campaign more accurately than ever before as it nears the home stretch.

On the presidential level, the race looks the same as it did in April: Clinton leading Dole by 12-24 points nationwide with Perot trailing in single digits. When a Democratic presidential candidate swings through Florida, Georgia, and Alabama in the final two weeks of a campaign with a realistic chance of carrying all three states, a mammoth landslide is often imminent. Clinton is also close or ahead in other such traditionally Republican states as Arizona (last carried by a Democrat in 1948), Virginia (1976), and North Carolina. Even Texas is not secure for Dole. My electoral vote call: Clinton 412 (55 percent), Dole 113 (36 percent), Perot 0 (9 percent).

The battle for control of Congress, on the other hand, will almost definitely go down to the wire. On the grand scale, the presidential race will have three competing effects. First are the Traditional Coattails, which favor Democrats. A turnout-related effect caused by Republicans staying home because they feel their presidential cause is hopeless, thus boosting Democratic chances down the ticket (an example is 1964). Second is the Don't-Rock-the-Boat Theory. People are more or less satisfied with the economy and life in general, a fact which is helping Clinton a great deal, but might also work for Republicans in Congress (like 1984, but the other way around). Last but not least is the Balance of Power. This is what Republicans are banking on. They feel that voters prefer divided government (polls show this to be inconclusive) and will consciously vote for the Republican Congressional candidates to check Clinton.

The bottom line is that in most recent surveys of generic Congressional preference, Democrats score anywhere from even with to 12 points better than Republicans. Prior to the GOP landslide of 1994, Republicans were only favored by five points. Also, the campaigns are being fought locally rather than nationally, which favors Democrats. There is no 1996 equivalent of the Contract with America and neither party is making a concerted call for control, the Republicans because of the unpopularity of their leaders and the Democrats because they don't want to conjure up the specter of the 103rd Congress.

Likewise, the peripheral movers and shakers are working in the Democrats' favor; the AFL-CIO and Sierra Club are replacing the Christian Coalition and NRA as main agitators. In fact, the Republicans have done as poor a job in 1996 of responding to attacks as the Democrats did in 1994. They are running from Newt Gingrich as fast and as furiously as the Democrats ran from Clinton two years ago.

This reversal is epitomized by the race in Indiana's 8th District. Freshman Republican Rep. John Hostettler won a narrow upset victory in 1994 over a veteran Democratic incumbent on the strength of his commitment to Gingrich's Contract with America, and by linking his opponent to President Clinton. Now, he faces a stiff challenge in his own reelection, a contest that is among the 50 closest in the nation. So what does he do? He launches an ad campaign playing up his ability to work alongside Clinton and his independence from the now unpopular Speaker of the House. His opponent, Jon Weinzapfel, is doing everything in his power to hang the Gingrich albatross around Hostettler's neck.

In this context, the question, at least in the House, isn't whether the Republicans will lose seats, but rather how many they will lose. The Democrats require a net gain of 19 seats to take control, and one has already come their way in Louisiana's 7th District, where the Tues., Nov. 5 election features two Democrats. Based on polls and coattails, I predict the Democrats winning 24 seats for a 222-212-1 majority.

The Senate remains anyone's guess. No fewer than 19 of the 34 races are still in play as I write this, 14 of which are statistical ties. The Democrats must win 13 of these 19 to regain control of the Senate. These races include three incumbent Democrats, the most vulnerable of whom is John Kerry of Massachusetts, who is running in the second most Democratic state in the nation, but faces a stiff challenge from the popular Governor Bill Weld. Under the circumstances, however, it's difficult to see Kerry losing. Also running are four incumbent Republicans, three of whom are particularly vulnerable: Larry Pressler of South Dakota, Bob Smith of New Hampshire, and the ever-polarizing Jesse Helms of North Carolina. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is currently leading his challenger.

The major wild card, however, is the record 14 open seats up for grabs. Twelve of these seats--seven Democratic and five Republican--are still competitive. All of these races, except those in Illinois and Georgia, where the Democrats lead, are tossups. The likelihood is that Democrats will win at least half of these elections, which means they won't lose any seats. The question is whether they will gain the three they need. Most likely we'll wake up November 6 with a 50-50 Senate whose tie is broken by Vice President Al Gore.