Procreation breeds Irish success

When Britain—exhausted from World War I and struggling to hold on to India—finally granted Ireland its independence in the '20s, it carved out six counties in the northeastern corner of Ireland, which eventually became Northern Ireland. These six counties had a Protestant majority which, since its arrival from across the North Sea in the 1600s and 1700s, had done its best to turn the Irish-Catholic minority into virtual serfs. So the majority-Irish portion of Ireland became the Irish Republic, and the majority-Scotch-Irish portion became Northern Ireland, which continued to suppress Catholic rights. London didn't particularly like this situation, but the British government didn't do much to stop it.

Enter Tony Blair, the first British prime minister to truly understand Britain's role as a modern state and as a mediating power within the context of a united Europe. Irish suppression in Northern Ireland does not fit into Blair's vision for Britain, especially considering the fact that the Irish Republic is the fastest-growing economy in the New Europe. Northern Ireland currently has a Scotch-Irish majority, but the higher Irish- Catholic birth rate will cause this majority to become a minority within 30 or 40 years.

If the British hold an election in Northern Ireland now, it stays part of Britain. That's why the Good Friday Accords call for continued British rule. However, in 40 years, due to the presence of more Catholics, the voting majority in Northern Ireland will want to join the Republic. This is an increasingly attractive option because Ireland is rapidly transforming from a land of rotting potatoes and poor emigrants into a nation with hi-tech companies and an expanding population.

Northern Ireland actually lasted several months under a multi-party provincial government that included representative numbers of militant and non-militant Protestants and Catholics. It was led by the Protestant non-militants because they happen to be the largest group in Northern Ireland at the moment. Then the Irish Republican Army (IRA)—the Catholic militants—refused to begin the destruction of its weapons cache, even though it had promised to do so. As a result, Peter Mandelson, Britain's Northern Ireland secretary, suspended the provincial government and brought control of Northern Ireland back to London.

The IRA screwed up big time. The war is over. Yes, Ireland would not have achieved independence when it did, were it not for the IRA—but Northern Ireland is a different problem in a different era. Of course Northern Ireland should become part of the Irish Republic. The Scotch-Irish can continue to live there, but they'll have to accept the fact that Ireland is Ireland and Britain is Britain, and they can continue to be Protestant under the Irish tricolor instead of under the Union Jack.

Ireland will be reunited as soon as a voting majority of Northern Irish wants it to happen, which will be the case in 40 years. No amount of violence can change that, so the IRA's best strategy would be to disarm, accept the relatively favorable terms of the Good Friday Agreement, and make Northern Ireland a bet-ter place for Catholics under the British flag. Then we can all wait around until the high Catholic birth rate brings victory at the polls and a united, independent, and prosperous Ireland for the first time in modern history.

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