From the Sidelines: The off season: the real season?

By Jason Heller

Maybe the lesson learned from Wayne Huizenga is that any hotshot business magnate can buy a baseball team, buy all the free agents he needs to build a good team, and then sell them off when they win. Trade 'em while their stock is high, while the going's good, and get out of the business. It's like short-term stock market investing, right?

Can a team secure its place in the postseason simply by making the right moves in the offseason? If Huizenga can buy his Marlins a World Series by signing a bunch of high-priced free agents before 1997 and then sell them off the next, can't everyone else do the same?

No.

The World Series is not won in the offseason. No one can win just by stacking up his or her team with stars that can pummel the competition into the ground. It just can't be done.

Take, for example, the 1998 Cleveland Indians. Their batting order looks to have, by my count, a group which could produce as many as 200 homers. Sounds deadly, right? It is. Cleveland picked up Kenny Lofton, Geronimo Berroa, and Travis Fryman in the offseason to make their lineup as nasty as it was in 1995. But, their pitching remains, in a word, crappy. Charles Nagy is inconsistent, rookie Jaret Wright is untested, Chad Ogea may be no more than a flash in the pan, and the others are burnouts. There's a reason the Yanks dumped Doc Gooden, but the Indians picked him up along with two other mediocre pitchers this winter. They'll be in trouble by June. Pitching wins games. Just ask the Atlanta Braves.

The Indians will probably still win the AL Central, but not necessarily because of their productive offseason. They'll win mostly because the rest of the teams in that division--the Royals, Tigers, Twins, and the White Sox--are still weak because none of them improved significantly in the offseason.

The Indians will have pennant competition from an improved New York Yankees squad. Having added second baseman Chuck Knoblauch and designated hitter Chili Davis, the Yanks figure to have a significantly stronger and more stable offense than last year. Additionally, young players will likely see some playing time, thus showing off the Yanks' stellar farm system. And new third baseman Scott Brosius, who was the worst regular in the majors last season with a meager .203 batting average, has all the makings of a classic Yankee who'll step up his play under the pressure. Either that or crack entirely.

With a batting order second only to the Indians, the Yanks can outswing the entire AL East--the aging Orioles, the uneven Red Sox, the weak-hitting Blue Jays, and expansion Devil Rays. And their pitching staff, barring injuries, will be about equal to the aging Orioles'. The Yanks should win the division this year because they have made quality offseason pickups without parting with key players. But it's not simply the winter deals that will make the Yanks great in 1998. It's also Joe Torre's careful management and a good mix of veterans and young prospects on the team.

The AL West hasn't changed enough for anyone to expect that Seattle won't win again. Same goes for the NL East with Atlanta. If anything, the other NL East teams have only gotten worse since 1997 and will be lucky to post a winning record.

The NL Central, however, will be interesting. Some big deals have been made in the division. Houston lost ace starter Darryl Kile. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh have no true All-Stars, despite having tons of young talent. St. Louis lost ace Andy Benes, but has a lot of strong players like Delino DeShields, Ray Lankford, and of course Mark McGwire.

The team to watch, though, is the Chicago Cubs, who bolstered their lineup with Jeff Blauser, Mickey Morandini, and Henry Rodriguez, and added star closer Rod Beck, who's so ugly that opposing batters would rather just strike out than look at him. Individually, these guys may not sound all that impressive, but the Cubs have all the makings of a scrappy underdog team that could pull off a division title. If they do, they'll be the best example of how a team with a productive offseason can win the division.

The NL West is also interesting. Aside from the expansion Arizona Diamondbacks who will probably not be contending for anything, the division has changed very little. The only major changes were San Diego adding Kevin Brown and Colorado losing Andres Galarraga and picking up Darryl Kile. So if offseason moves determine a season's outcome, San Diego should be a bit better, Colorado should be a bit worse, and Los Angeles and San Francisco should be about the same. This, however, will not be the case. These teams are so close in talent that anything can happen. The Dodgers may finally discover what "team chemistry" means. And San Diego, San Francisco, and Colorado all have strengths and weaknesses that offset each other. The NL West is the only division without a favorite.

But nothing's final in any division. As spring training starts this weekend, excitement is in the air. There are dozens of underdog possibilities this year. No one in this offseason has gone on a buying frenzy like the Marlins did before last season. No team sealed its fate in the offseason. Every team that contended last year should have a shot this year. Except Florida. They have already given up on 1998. I guess they learned from their own example.

Sort of.

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