ELItorial: Five Fearless forecasts for the NBA

By Albert Chen

A player jumps his coach and threatens to kill him. The league's premier play-by-play man is charged with forcible sodomy. The team with the best record in the Eastern Conference is from somewhere other than Chicago. The Nets have a better record than the Knicks.

It was an awfully strange first half, and the season is certain to have an exciting finish. Can Michael do it again? Are Bird's Pacers really that good? Can Hakeem, Charles, and Clyde make one last improbable run? Will Shaq ever hit his free throws?

Here they are, five fearless forecasts. Enjoy the rest of the season, and don't let anything shock you.

1. Keith Van Horn will be the NBA Rookie of the Year. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Tim Duncan fan. His Spurs are in first place in their division, he's putting up 17.9 points and 11.5 rebounds a game, and he certainly deserves his All-Star selection. But what Van Horn has done for the New Jersey Nets is truly remarkable. After sitting out the Nets' first 17 games with an ankle injury, Van Horn is already looking more like a seasoned veteran than a 22-year old rookie. He's the main reason why the Nets are just a couple of games out of first place in the Atlantic Division. When the Nets, a team that went 26-56 last season, reach the playoffs, people will start to notice the rare talent of this versatile forward, who is already the team's MVP. Also, Van Horn doesn't have Duncan's solid supporting cast, which includes David Robinson and Sean Elliott. And guess what? Van Horn says that he has been playing at just 75 percent for most of the season.

2. The New York Knicks will not make the playoffs. A win over Miami. A loss to Milwaukee. What team is going to show up in the season's second half? Patrick Ewing is gone, and the Knicks have lost their center and their heart. Even if the Knicks make the playoffs, they'd at best have a seven seed, and won't make it further than the first round. There has already been some mumbling within the organization about settling for a lottery pick. This is quite a story, considering that this was supposed to be the year everything fell into place. So far, the Knicks have struggled without Ewing, going 10-10 since his Sat., Dec. 20 injury. But with Penny Hardaway back in Orlando, the Washington Wizards finding their groove, and the Milwaukee Bucks catching fire, the race for the last few playoff spots is going to be grueling. Without Ewing, the Knicks just don't have enough.

3. Denver will finish with the worst record in history. So this is what life after Dikembe Mutombo is like. Since his departure two seasons ago, the Nuggets are 24-102. Maybe they should have given him his $11 million. This year, with just four wins at the season's midpoint, the Nuggets could possibly finish with the worst record in NBA history. The 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers went 9-73, and not many people thought the mark would ever be contested. The Nuggets are already looking toward next season, and with their low payroll, will make a move for a high-priced free agent. But who will come to play for the worst team ever? Yes, they will be the worst team ever--the Nuggets will not win ten games. The best player on the team is LaPhonso Ellis. Enough said.

4. Larry Bird will be the NBA Coach of the Year. No, Bird's Pacers aren't really that good. That's partly why Bird's accomplishments have been so impressive. A team doesn't win 32 of 44 by chance. The Pacers, off to their best start ever, won't win the Central Division. But with their inspired play and stubborn defense, they may very well turn out to be the East's best shot at dethroning the Bulls. Hiring Bird was one of the biggest risks of the off-season. Last week, Bird was tapped to coach the East All-Stars on Sunday. On Monday, he received the Coach of the Month award for January, and that same day he was also nominated to the Hall of Fame. And the season is only half done.

5. The Bulls will lose to the Lakers in the Finals, and His Airness will retire. I know, I know, the 25-point win by the Lakers over the defending champion Bulls last weekend probably was a fluke of some sort. Still, the Bulls knew that it would be a big game. They were embarrassed the week before on national television when they lost at home to Utah. Surely they were thinking of making a statement. But the Lakers are loaded--they have four All-Stars on their team, the most from any squad in 15 years. What separates this team from its unsuccessful predecessors is its remarkable balance. Four players scored over 20 points in the win over Chicago. All dynasties come to an end. Regardless of whether the Bulls win their sixth title in eight years, don't expect Jordan back next season. He has made it very clear that he won't play under any coach other than Phil Jackson, and the chances that Jackson will be back in Chicago are comparable to Shaq hitting two straight from the line. Shaq's free throws, however, may be the difference come June when the Bulls and Lakers meet for this wacky season's grand finale.

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