From the Sidelines: Guarding the road to San Antonio

By Christopher Burke

Even without the brackets, one can gauge the general direction for this year's tourney. The most important thing to remember is that guards win in the NCAA Tournament--not centers, not forwards, but guards. Take a look at the past two champions to see the strength in this argument. Two years ago, Kentucky beat a cinderella Syracuse squad on the backs of Ron Mercer and Tournament MVP Tony Delk, who lit up the Orangemen in the title game.

Last year, no one would have guessed that up-and-down Arizona could win the seven straight necessary to take the crown, but the Wildcats looked to the backcourt tandem of point guard Mike Bibby and off-guard Miles Simon to provide the necessary quickness and defensive pressure that produces championships. They used their athleticism to throw off tourney favorite Kansas, and wore down Kentucky in the overtime title game thriller.

So why is guard play so important? It comes down to the timing of the tournament games. It's a lot easier for a team to prepare an effective half-court defense to combat a center-based offense, than to contain a flowing guard-dominated offensive set. Look at Wake Forest last year. The Demon Deacons ran the same low-post offense on just about every trip down the floor, and Stanford was able to contain Wake and center Tim Duncan by being physical and denying entry passes on numerous possessions. Teams that only have a few days to prepare for their next opponent can design a defense to shutdown the half-court game. But teams that utilize their guards to create on the fly can bedevil opponents, who then have to defend by reaction, not
preparation.

That said, the four teams that should make the march to San Antonio this year are North Carolina, Duke, Arizona, and Connecticut. The Tar Heels, despite a minor slide in the rankings, are still the best team in the nation. No other squad combines similar levels of experience and skill in its backcourt-frontcourt combination, and the Heels have great guards in Ed Cota and Shammond Williams. Williams can light up opponents at any time, and there might not be a smoother point guard than Cota, who commands the offense with precise leadership, not flashy excess.

Duke will make it to San Antonio based on depth and talent alone. Shooting guard Trajan Langdon has come into his own during the latter stages of the season, and is one of the best marksmen in the game. Arizona returns Bibby and Simon, and, if they are able to sustain the roll they have been on since January, could walk away with a repeat. The surprise pick here is Connecticut, with the backcourt of Ricky Moore and first-year sensation Khalid El-Amin. The latter has consistently whipped opponents with his ability to drive to the hoop.

But picking the Final Four is always the most boring part of March. Getting those sleepers is the real fun. The pick here (and this is a long shot, since they might not even make the tourney) is the Clemson Tigers. With a win or two in the ACC Tournament this week, Clemson could advance to the Dance, and, with an aggressive defense and great coach in Rick Barnes, the Tigers might give an opponent a real scare. The key for Clemson is turnovers. If they can force their opponents to cough it up with some pressure and traps, the Tigers will make some noise. As for a potential bust, I have my eye on Kentucky, who has lost a few games it shouldn't have this year. Plus, Tubby Smith isn't a great Tournament coach. Watch for the Wildcats to be surprised early.

And what of everyone's favorite nerd herd, the Princeton Tigers? Well, as much as I'll be rooting for the orange and black, I can't see them doing much in this Tournament. If they run into a team with physical guards that can penetrate, it's all over for Princeton. While fundamentally sound, the Tigers have a hard time competing with opponents who use their backcourt size and driving ability to wear down the Ivy surprises.

Who's the champ? North Carolina. Williams, Cota, Vince Carter, and Antwan Jamison will prove too experienced and too talented for opposing teams. The Heels will cut down the nets on Mon., Mar. 30, giving first-year coach Bill Guthridge one hell of a first season, and adding a perfect epilogue to the coaching career of Dean Smith, who put this Tar Heel squad together.

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