Election expert develops a new theory of voting

For the first time since 1934, the party of the President of the United States did not lose congressional seats in the midterm elections. Alan Gerber, assistant professor and director of undergraduate studies of political science, sat down with the Herald to discuss the bucking of this 64-year-old trend and implications for the future of politics.

JULIA TIERNAN/YH Professor Alan Gerber predicted that the November election results will change the future of political science analysis.

The reversal of this trend, which political scientists had relied on as a standard for more than half a century, is the most striking element of this year's elections, according to Gerber. "There are a lot of hypotheses that political scientists have to explain this trend," he explained. "The most popular one is the 'balancing hypothesis' which states that most voters are somewhat between the two parties, and that they see congressional voting in the context of the government as a whole. The president is a fixed point in midterm elections, so they want to balance out the rest of the government."

According to Gerber, the number of congressional seats lost by the party of the incumbent president inversely varies with the nation's recent economic performance and measures of the president's popularity. The President Clinton's high approval ratings and the good state of the economy, according to Gerber, would have foreshadowed a loss for the Democrats of fewer seats in the House. The Monica Lewinsky scandal, however, was expected to plague the Democratic candidates.

Gerber believes that, in the end, the Lewinsky affect was "not at all critical" in determining the election's outcome. "I'm hesitant to say that the President's position hurt the Democratic party," he said. "They performed rather well, and it's hard to believe that they could have done any better than they did."

This week's atypical elections will significantly shape the future of political science inquiry into the voting habits of the American people, according to Gerber, who has done research on American voting patterns and has worked as a consultant for numerous political campaigns. "The conventional wisdom in empirical political science is that those American who do vote tend to have the same political predispositions as those who don't. Extensive research has been done on this to determine the extent to which low voter turnout affects elections," he said.

Gerber no longer agrees with the conventional wisdom on voting. "In recent years, there has been a large and politically significant difference between the opinions of voters and nonvoters," he said. "Prior to this election, surveys showed that there were big differences in candidate preference across likely voters and all adults."

According to Gerber, if his theory is correct, it will have profound implications for the formulation of campaign strategies. "The issue of voter turnout-who's turning out and how many of them are turning out-will become a central area of inquiry in political science, and understanding nonvoter attitudes will become an important force in shaping campaign strategy," he said. "The magnitude of the effects of nonvoting will increase compared to the effects of historical trends."

As for the future, Gerber is hesitant to predict anything concrete, but he does see the possibility of another Bush in the White House. According to Gerber, the fact that the two younger Bush brothers, George W. and Jeb, are the governors of Texas and Florida respectively, is stunning. "George W. Bush won this election by a lot of votes," Gerber said. "His brand of Republican politics seems to be quite successful, and he's one of the Republicans who hasn't alienated minority voters. Republican governors are doing very well right now, and governors in general tend to make good presidential candidates."

Moreover, Gerber noted that the impact of the newly elected Democratic governor in California would probably reach upcoming House and presidential elections. "Gray Davis' defeat of Dan Lungren for the California governor's seat is very important," he said. "The governor is responsible for the districting process in the state, and so this Democrat could significantly influence the face of the California house delegation."

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