Congress expert predicts Clinton will survive

In light of the recent sex scandals and criminal allegations surrounding President Bill Clinton, LAW '73, the Herald sat down with political science professor and Congress expert David Mayhew to discuss the future of Clinton's presidency.

TAMI WHALEN/YH Mayhew gives Clinton a two in three chance of surviving the next six months and remaining in office.

Mayhew pointed to differences between Clinton's extramarital affair and infidelities of other presidents of this century. "It's a fact of our time that you're operating in a different environment," he said. "[Presidents like] Harding, Kennedy, and Johnson could have affairs without fear of consequences. The same activity in Clinton's time is much more reckless. Clinton had to know that the press would hit him for it." Mayhew also pointed out that in the past, presidents were usually much older by the time they were in the White House, and were therefore less likely to engage in extramarital sex.

Mayhew anticipates that Clinton's public image could suffer the most from the Starr report when its sexually explicit contents go public. "The prose itself will be an event," he said. He likened the potential political fallout from the report to that of the reaction to the Nixon tapes when they were released in the spring of 1974. Mayhew recalled how visibly disturbed the American public was by the language used in the White House when the Watergate tapes, ridden with deleted expletives, were broadcast on the evening news.

According to Mayhew, sordid details about sex are "the kind of thing that could produce criticism from the Democrats." And while Clinton has held on "positive but shallow support" from Democratic voters, Mayhew said that "the reaction among Democratic politicians is very frosty." House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) is considered by Mayhew to be "something of a weathervane" and Mayhew notes that aides in the White House are upset by Gephardt's lack of outright support for President Clinton.

Part of the reason for Gephardt's lukewarm support is his concern over the congressional elections this November and his position as House Democratic Leader. "There is wait and speculation in D.C.: It's weighing down the Democrats and energizing the Republicans," Mayhew said.

A substantial number of Democrats would have to turn against Clinton for his presidency to be in jeopardy. Mayhew gave Clinton a two in three chance of still sitting in the Oval Office six months from now because of public support. "You have to be very careful about overturning a popular election," he explained.

While Clinton has focused primarily on domestic issues during his presidency, Mayhew predicted that the Monica Lewinsky affair has made it nearly impossible for Clinton to pass his domestic platform in the remainer of his presidency. "Clinton's agenda on Capitol Hill is almost dead," he said. Specifically, Mayhew speculated that the President will not be able to push items on his education agenda through Congress.

For this reason, Mayhew said that Clinton's best strategy to make his mark on history might be to devote more time to foreign affairs. "[Twentieth century] presidents earned their pay conducting foreign policy," he said. While Mayhew admitted that carving out a foreign policy legacy could be difficult in such a "pacifist decade," he criticized Clinton's handling of the foreign policy issues that the President has had to address. "Clinton's been allowing [Secretary of State] Madeline Albright to make stern warnings that have not been followed up by the government in places like Kosovo and Iraq."

At the same time, Mayhew does not foresee any national crisis on the horizon, stating that "only a country in a state of luxury could dwell so much on this [scandal]." If Clinton is forced out of the White House, Mayhew was confident that Vice President Al Gore "looks like a very good foreign policy president; he has the instincts, the training."

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