Security Expert Odom discusses bin Laden threat

SHEELA V. PAI/YH FALSE FEARS: Political science professor William Odom believes the dangers of terrorist Osama bin Laden have been exaggerated.

Since the explosive events of last August, U.S. government officials and intelligence experts have been speculating endlessly about what Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden's next move may be. These tensions came to a head last week when Assistant Secretary of State for Diplomatic Security David Carpenter told a House subcommittee that bin Laden "appears to be the most dangerous terrorist threat to U.S. diplomatic facilities and personnel overseas." The Herald sat down with political science professor and terrorism expert William Odom to discuss the dangers bin Laden poses to international security.

Bin Laden shocked the world on Fri., Aug. 7, when he orchestrated the bombing of U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, killing 263 people, including 12 Americans. Two weeks later, the international community was rocked again when President Clinton, LAW '73, ordered missile strikes against bin Laden-run networks on Thurs., Aug. 20.

Odom, who teaches a seminar on American national security, thinks the strikes may have "made Americans feel good" but strengthened bin Laden's terrorist network in
the long run. "Bin Laden has a lot of popular support
in the Middle East that he didn't have before the strikes, because he has a bigger image and the U.S. didn't kill
him," Odom explained.

He believes the strikes roused anti-American sentiment among many Arabs, further complicating U.S. efforts to track down bin Laden. "People are inclined to cheer for David, not Goliath," Odom explained. "It will be easier for bin Laden to recruit young radicals. The strikes increased the number of people who will cheer for him [making] it easier for him to move through countries. It makes the governments of those countries less likely to arrest him."

According to Carpenter, a major reason why bin Laden poses such a huge threat is because of the vast extent of his network--bin Laden operatives in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, France, and Bangladesh have been arrested over the past two months. Odom explained that these networks are complex and intricate. "Terrorist networks initiate people into their circles in ways that give them strong incentives not
to betray the network, they're taught to do various tasks, and they're trained in various specialties, such as demolition
or secret communications," he said. Odom added that
a network can range in size from ten or twenty to hun-
dreds of people.

Surprisingly, Odom believes that the bin Laden threat has been exaggerated and should be classified as a "nuisance level" threat to national security, despite the embassy bombings and the numerous bin Laden bombing plots that have been uncovered recently. According to Odom, the U.S. should accept that such threats are a natural part of being a wealthy nation with allies like Israel. "Let's not overrate this situation in its importance, but that's not to say let's ignore it," he said. "Let's just put it in strategic perspective. Bin Laden's terrorism is troublesome, it's fatal for some of his victims, but it's not going to reduce the United States' position in the world significantly no matter what he does."

Odom believes it is imperative that the media tone down its hype regarding bin Ladin. "The greatest contribution we could make to strengthening bin Laden and improving his power is to become excited about it, publicly frightened of him, and devote too much attention to him," he said. "He would consider that a great victory."

Odom praised U.S. anti-terrorism efforts. "The U.S. has done reasonably well in blunting terrorist operations in the world," he said. "The figures are not public as to the number that we've prevented, for we only know about the ones that succeed." Carpenter confirmed this assessment in front of the House committee, stating that since the embassy bombing, threatened attacks have been thwarted at U.S. embassies in Albania, Uganda, Azerbaijan, Ivory Coast, and Tadzhikistan.

According to Odom, the major task now for the State Department and American intelligence is to locate bin Laden, who is rumored to have abandoned his hideout in the mountains of Afghanistan for a new one in Iran or Iraq. Odom said they won't find the terrorist overnight. "When the President, Secretary of Defense, or Secretary of State has a high priority interest in something like they do in terrorist activities, they can task the intelligence community to learn everything they can about it," he said. "[But] it may take years of good intelligence work before we have reliable understandings and information."

If the U.S. finds bin Laden, what should the next steps be? Odom laid out the options. "They could try
to capture him, they might be able to kill him, they might
be able to get another country to arrest him," he said. "The priority would definitely be to capture him alive. The U.S. wants to set the precedent for due process and bringing people to account for their actions before the law." Odom said he wouldn't advocate a military operation since "the costs would be very high and capturing him wouldn't
be worth it."

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