From the sidelines: Is there a method to March Madness

COURTESY SPORTS ILLUSTRATED Shane Battler '01 (31) and the Duke Blue Devils are the favorites, but during March Madness nothing is ever certain.

For starters, you can employ a closely-reasoned strategic analysis of the strengths and weakness of all the teams. This method never works (it is called March Madness, after all), but I can never resist attempting it, so here goes.

In the East, there is no team that has a chance of knocking off top-seeded Duke. Behind big Elton Brand '01, emotional leader Chris Carrawell '00, and a slew of reserves who could probably make the Final Four on their own, the Blue Devils should outlast gutsy St. John's and surprising Ohio State to bring Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski to his first Final Four since 1996. In the early rounds, look for Murray State to throw a scare into a national powerhouse and for Ivy League champ Penn to survive the first round behind 20 points from Michael Jordan '00.

Out West, Auburn--the most surprising team since Hickory High--will get the top seed. They will struggle, however, against Stanford, which will be the best number two team in the tourney. North Carolina, which is likely to get the fourth seed, should never be counted out in March-- but the Tar Heels are still young and experience means everything during the season's stretch run. Saint Francis of New York, behind star guard Ray Mineland '99, should pull off a major early-round upset in the West, but the Terriers will falter against a team with too much size--such as Wisconsin--later in the tournament.

In the South, watch out for Utah. UConn deserves and will receive the top seed, but the fourth-seeded Utes, behind the experience, drive, and leadership of Andre Miller '99 and the deadeye shooting of Hanno Mottola '00, will manage to pull out a close contest against a tough Huskies team. Look for senior Jason Terry to drop 30 on some small-conference pretender in the first round as Arizona rolls easily towards a marquee matchup with powerful Maryland in the Sweet 16. Both Utah and UConn have struggled at different times during the season, so there is certainly the possibility of a surprise team--maybe Iowa, maybe Florida--coming out of this bracket ahead of the favorites.

The top four seeds in the Midwest should be Michigan State, Kentucky, Cincinnati, and Miami, respectively. Here I'm only sure of one thing--Michigan State will lose early. Never under any circumstances put your money on a highly-seeded Big Ten team. Cincinnati has been ice-cold in the season's last month, while the Hurricanes have been on fire. The coach with the most big-game experience--Kentucky's Tubby Smith--should pull the Wildcats through to their fourth consecutive Final Four.

The second way to make your picks is the "dominant mascot theory"--this method has a slightly higher success rate. According to this theory, the team with the most powerful mascot will always prevail over the team with the lesser mascot. The squads with forces of evil on their side are the most powerful, followed (in order of descending strength) by teams with God on their side, forces of nature, men with guns, ferocious animals, men with other weapons, then colors, foods, wimpy creatures, and all others. This spells trouble for the Terrapins, Tar Heels, Cardinals, and Buckeyes. In the dominant mascot scenario, Duke will come out on top; the only other team with a chance is the Miami Hurricanes. The Elite Eight round will be a catfight, but the Wildcats and Bearcats will eventually be blown away by the forces of nature and evil.

The third strategy is to follow the "who's hot, who's not" theory, developed by a friend of mine in high school. She would pick the teams with the hottest guys, and usually win hundreds of dollars. My sources tell me that this year Duke, Ohio State, Utah, and Stanford have the looks of champions.

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