Yale prof analyzes NATO's role in Kosovo crisis

PATRICK MCGARVEY/YH TAIKO/NEWSMAKERS BETTER LATE THAN NEVER: While History Professor Lee Blackwood (top) supports United States-led military actions of NATO forces in Kosovo, he also argues that if NATO had acted earlier to try to solve the crisis, a great deal of human suffering could have been averted.

After months of threats and failed negotiations, North American Treaty Organization (NATO) forces began airstrikes on Serbian targets on Wed., Mar. 24, minutes after President Bill Clinton, LAW '73, demanded an end to the "brutal repression" of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.

The airstrike, the biggest allied military assault in Europe since World War II, was prompted by Milo-sevic's rejection of a peace plan that has been signed by the ethnic Albanians. The plan calls for NATO forces to monitor the region and enforce the terms of the accord, ending over a year of fighting between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanians seeking independence. Lee Blackwood, assistant professor of history and associate director of the Council on Russian and East European Studies, discussed the issues at stake in this human rights and geopolitical crisis with The Yale Herald.

According to Blackwood, the fundamental crisis in the Balkans revolves around the issue of human rights. "Kosovo is an absolute human rights catastrophe," he said. "The question is whether it is incumbent on the United States to defend human rights. Some think so and some think not."

Blackwood noted that NATO's delayed reaction to the fighting in Kosovo is being questioned during the crisis. "NATO has immense power and has been reluctant to use it in the region," he said. "Had this power been used earlier, it could have prevented a lot of human suffering. I don't buy the argument that brute military force gets you nowhere.

Blackwood believes NATO must follow through on its threats in order to prevent the unrest from spreading to neighboring Macedonia, which also has a large ethnic Albanian population, and to reinforce its leadership position in world politics. "[NATO has] the power. Now it needs to put it to good use," he said. "It's a golden opportunity for NATO--as a European-American alliance structure--to show its ability to make good on its word."

Though NATO forces are strong and possess military technology that far exceeds that of the Serbs, the Serbians still have civilian support. Since 1989, when Milosevic declared that communism in the former Yugoslavia would focus on Serbian nationalism and the creation of a state which would include all Serbs, Serbian citizens have firmly supported Milosevic and his position on Kosovo. "Anti-Milosevic sentiments in Yugoslavia, while present, are, in all likelihood, not going to lead to his ousting," Blackwood said. "Moreover, there is strong, widespread support in Serbia for maintaining control
over Kosovo, a region 90 percent of whose population
is Albanian."

As the offensive against the Serbs enters its third day, ground warfare is becoming a possibility for NATO forces in the Balkans. "The Serbians can be damaged from the air, but ground troops may, in fact, be necessary to prevent further atrocities," he said. "NATO, of course, is reluctant to put the lives of its own troops at risk, but this reluctance may prevent it from making good on the immense power it possesses."

If the NATO offensive is intensified, Blackwood noted that further American involvement may not be necessary, since Kosovo is primarily a European problem, but that it could be a factor in ending the crisis. "The NATO forces are mostly British, Italian, and French, and only about 4,000 Americans are involved," he said. "The United States doesn't have to play a greater role. But the record demonstrates that NATO is incapable of acting decisively without American leadership because of the technological superiority of American military and the
inability of major
European states
to arrive at a
consensus."

Throughout the next few weeks, Blackwood said he will be interested in analyzing the relative success of the airstrikes and the decisions of NATO and the U.S. about whether to engage in ground combat. "This will fit into the debate about whether air power alone can affect an outcome," he said. "It's conceivable that airstrikes alone will not be sufficient. NATO will face a real dilemma about whether they are willing and able to face the Serb army on the ground, a dilemma about the self-imposed limitations on their use of power."

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