Experts uneasy about Pakistani military coup

In the past week, the eyes of the world have turned to Pakistan. Military General Pervaiz Musharraf overthrew its democratically elected prime minister in a coup that drew support from citizens eager to end corruption among the nation's elite. Visiting history lecturer Robert Nichols, however, is pessimistic about the implications of Musharraf's leadership. An expert on India, Nichols sat down with the Herald and discussed his thoughts on the matter and the insight he gained during his stay in Pakistan this past summer.

JOHN YI/YH Robert Nichols thinks General Musharraf is not a benevolent dictator.

Westerners might not believe that the overthrow of a democratically elected government could be celebrated. However, Nichols pointed out that Pakistan has fallen under the rule of numerous dictators acting under democratic pretenses since Indian Muslims created the country following India's independence in 1947. Pakistan's brand of democracy, Nichols explained, is in fact a far cry from that to which Americans are accustomed. Without any political accountability limiting their power, deposed Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his predecessor, Benazir Bhutto, have been charged with diverting millions of American dollars worth of bank loans and contract commissions to their personal bank accounts. Nichols said the majority of Pakistanis are too uneducated to combat powerful, corrupt authorities. "Pakistan is a slowly developing nation," he said. "The people don't know what's going on and since they cannot even read the newspapers, they cannot be mobilized." Nichols argued that Pakistanis would therefore welcome any leader who alleges he could bring change.

"Musharraf says the right rhetoric," Nichols explained. The general has promised democratic elections and has frozen the bank accounts of embezzling members of the elite. He has also pulled Pakistani troops back from certain border positions and talked of resolving the territorial dispute over Kashmir, a region that has been the cause of three wars and numerous skirmishes between Pakistan and India over the past 52 years.

Nichols does not see progress occurring in Pakistan. "Obviously, anyone who overthrows the government will try to put on a good face," he said. "The general is making some short-term, feel-good solutions to those problems. What Pakistan needs is the further development of civil society, democratic institutions, health care, education, budget reform, and literacy. Military rule will not accomplish that."

However, despite fears that conflict in the region might usher in nuclear war, Nichols believes that "[neither] country wants a war...[But] the politics of Kashmir and continued confrontation can lead to unintended consequences. If a general war does happen, there will be no early warning of an incoming nuclear strike. It's just going to happen and there will be retaliation and that is scary."

Nichols said that although U.S. Ambassador William Milam has advocated giving Musharraf a chance to institute democracy in Pakistan, military takeovers in Pakistan have historically turned into despotism. He drew an analogy to General Zia-ul-Huq, who took over the government in 1977 and promised to schedule democratic elections within 90 days, but kept the nation in a state of martial law until 1985. "Unlike India, in Pakistan there has been no opening up of the political base," Nichols explained. "Therefore, a very small group is holding all of the power. The colonial legacy of Pakistan has left a governing structure that has too much control over decision-making and budgets."

The resolution of Pakistan's relationship with India can only be found through restored bilateral negotiations conducted by the "good offices" of international intermediaries such as the United Nations (U.N.). The International Monetary Fund has frozen funding to Pakistan, Nichols is hopeful that this will send the message to Pakistan that reforms must be made. As for Kashmir, he feels that the original international resolutions drawn by the U.N. in a 1948 plebescite rejected by India should be revisited, that the U.N. should again become involved, and that the armed forces presently occupying Kashmir should withdraw. Kashmir, he said, should be allowed to determine its own fate.

As Musharraf establishes his political position, Nichols and the rest of the world hold their breath for what the future will bring in Pakistan.

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