Suck on this, 'EW!'

'Herald' picks, pans, and goes down hard on Oscar.

When it comes to betting on the Oscars—a surprisingly popular pastime considering how predictable most years' winners are—the first rule of sports gambling should be observed: never bet your heart. Remember the 1998 Oscars, when James Cameron's ego expanded to titanic size as he proclaimed himself king of the world? Well, I remember those Oscars as the time I lost $20 on a fool's bet on L.A. Confidential—a friend of mine put 30 bucks against my 20 that Titanic would sink 1997's true Best Picture, and as everyone but me knew from the start, it did. Excuse me for whining, but 20 bucks was two weeks' allowance back then.

Older, and maybe a little too disillusioned, I can easily see the overrated box office smash in this year's Best Picture category, Gladiator, chopping the field up as badly as anything Russell Crowe's Maximus slices into tiger food. No, Gladiator will not draw blood in each of its 12 categories, but history says never to bet against the picture with the most nominations in the Best Picture field. So rather than lose two more weeks of allowance, I'm conceding Best Picture to Gladiator in a field where one movie simply doesn't belong (Chocolat), one will be ignored by subtitle-haters (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), and the smart votes will be split between two movies by the same director (Erin Brockovich and Traffic). While praying that director Ridley Scott will not say "My name is Gladiator" when he takes the Best Picture statuette, let me run through who will win—and who deserves to win—in the other major categories. 

Best Actor  

Who will win: Tom Hanks, Cast Away

Who should win: Ed Harris, Pollock

Tom Hanks, Mr. Oscar himself, hasn't won a golden man for Best Actor since 1994, and the Academy's itching to give him another. In fact, the last time he was nominated (1998, Saving Private Ryan), his subtle performance so divided the vote that Roberto Benigni, the less likely candidate, came from behind to win. But in reality, neither Hanks' performance nor his movie are as amazing as claimed, so I'll take Ed Harris in Pollock. Playing frenetic artist Jackson Pollock—the sort of character lesser actors overact or cannot play at all—Harris gives a nuanced and unglorified performance that also carries his movie. Simply put, Harris' Pollock could whup Hanks' FedEx executive off the island any day, with or without an alliance. 

Best Actress  

Who will win: Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich

Who should win: Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream

When a box office star takes on real acting for the first time, maybe it is something to be applauded, but a Best Actress Oscar doesn't have to be that award. A pat on the back, some critical praise, and a Best Picture nomination for Erin Brockovich should be enough for Julia Roberts, just as it was for Annette Bening in American Beauty last year. Though two-time Oscar winner Ellen Burstyn utterly stole the show as a withering junkie in Requiem for a Dream, Julia's coronation is definitely in effect, no matter how we may talk in phrases like "paying dues." At least absurd Hollywood karma guarantees that when Roberts is Burstyn's age, there will be another younger actress there to steal her third statue too. 

Best Supporting Actor and Actress

Who will win: Benicio Del Toro, Traffic, and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous  

Who should win: Del Toro and Hudson

The infamous days of the Golden Globes, when Zsa Zsa Gabor could (and did) take Best Actress, may be over: Del Toro and Hudson won their Best Supporting Golden Globes this year in fields that are nearly identical to those they are competing in at the Oscars. Though Gladiator's Oscar momentum could give Best Supporting Actor to Joaquin Phoenix and Miramax propaganda could help Chocolat's Judi Dench become a two-time Best Supporting Actress, don't bet on it. Del Toro as a corrupt Mexican cop in Traffic is incredibly magnetic, despite not having a single line in English. Cameron Crowe's Almost Famous depends on Hudson, as groupie Pennie Lane, to take the audience with her through great highs and suicidal lows, and she does so impressively. 

Screenplay (Adapted) and Screenplay (Original)  

Who will win: Traffic and Almost Famous

Who should win: Wonder Boys and Almost Famous

I'm making a daring pick, but this may be one category where Gladiator's lack of true grandeur starts to show, as it joins the ranks of Titanic as the only Best Picture not to take writing or acting Oscars. But as much as I may like Stephen Gaghan's sharp screenplay for Traffic, its nomination further confirms that the Academy has no idea what an adapted screenplay actually is. Yes, Traffic is loosely inspired by the BBC mini-series Traffik, just as nominee O Brother, Where Art Thou? is loosely based on The Odyssey, but the connection isn't much greater than saying this column is adapted from Shakespeare. Steve Kloves' script for Wonder Boys is adapted directly from Michael Chabon's wandering novel, cutting down some extraneous plot while still retaining the book's odd sense of humor. 

Best Director  

Who will win: Stephen Soderbergh, Traffic

Who should win: Stephen Soderbergh, Traffic

They'll deny both his movies for Best Picture, but to deny Soderbergh the Best Director statue (for which he is nominated twice, no less) would be to deny one of the best years any director has ever had. And if Scott starts calling himself king of the world, at least Soderbergh will have a shiny golden man to throw at his head.

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