Will new zone strike out?

The groundhog may have seen his shadow and promised six more weeks of winter, but many Americans already see truer signs of spring: bats, mitts, and caps. Yep, pitchers and catchers have reported, and fans are getting ready for another season of the cherished American pastime. Baseball has evolved over the years as players have become more athletic and powerful, leading to an increased focus on offense. This makes for a more exciting ballgame but has also led to overemphasis on players' personal stats. Indeed, certain players have argued for moving in outfield walls in order to boost their home run averages. This has happened in St. Louis, home of Mark McGwire, and in three stadiums that just opened last year: Houston's Enron Field, San Francisco's PacBell Park, and Detroit's Comerica Park. But smaller parks are not the only cause of this offensive resurgence. As the strike zone has contracted over the years, players have had the luxury of waiting for a meatball. Mound height decreased at the same time, and the balance of power shifted from the pitcher to the batter. But a stricter adherence to the newly defined strike zone mandated during winter meetings will definitely impact the pace of the game as well as decrease the numbers players can rack up at the plate.

In an effort to promote uniformity among calls at the plate, MLB officials decided to enforce the entire strike zone, which accommodates more high pitches. The rulebook states, "The strike zone is that area over home plate the upper limit of which is a horizontal line at the midpoint between the top of the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants, and the lower level is a line at the hollow beneath the knee cap. The strike zone shall be determined from the batter's stance as the batter is prepared to swing at a pitched ball." Sandy Alderson, executive vice president of baseball operations for MLB, and Ralph Nelson, vice president of umpiring, brought together 67 of 68 major leag-ue umpires in January to ensure that calls would adhere to these standards during the 2001 season. Baseball officials insist that this is merely a return to the true definition of the strike zone. The consensus from the meeting was that the zone would be raised by the circumference of three baseballs—about seven to nine inches. The area is covered by the written rule, but umpires have been calling strikes only from the knees to the waist, perhaps in an effort to aid offense and avoid conflict with batters.

In the past, increased scrutiny on the strike zone has come after several offense-heavy years. After the zone was expanded in the 1963 season, scoring went down 11 percent and home runs fell by nine percent. In 1988, scoring dropped 12 percent and home runs decreased 28 percent. But the impact of the change will only be seen in the reaction of all parties involved—umpires, pitchers, batters, and, of course, fans. A recent attempt to enforce the strike zone in 1994 failed when certain players complained that excessive strike calls were leading to substandard batting averages. Now, however, umpires are a more cohesive unit with the backing of the MLB and will not necessarily ignore the official strike zone in order to boost players' averages. They will now have technology on their side as well: the league has entered into a five-year contract with Questec Inc., a technology firm that has developed devices to track balls and strikes to within two-fifths of an inch.

One of the likely outcomes of the change, beyond the number of strikes called, will be increased reliance on pitches with movement—sliders, sinkers, and curveballs. Batters will have to be less particular in their pitch selection. Decreased offensive numbers are inevitable, but games themselves will most likely move faster. Baseball has suffered from decreased viewership in recent years, and one possible explanation for this is the slow pace of games. The tradeoff, however, will be fewer booming home runs.

As players are warming up their winter muscles, umpires are going through their own training camps with videos outlining the strike zone and showing various pitches. They will be visiting training camps to educate players about the changes they can expect. It remains to be seen whether the grumblings of stars will outweigh the resolve of the league and umpires to stand by the rules, and whether the fans will appreciate the larger strike zone or will want another home run race.

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