Play ball...not that it matters

Baseball season is finally upon us. Without further ado, here are three of the many intriguing questions concerning the 2001 season and the answers that could determine who, come October, is playing baseball and who is playing golf:

Will the Red Sox make the playoffs?

That giant sucking sound you heard last week? That was Boston's season going straight down the sewage pipe. A few weeks ago, most people would have answered yes to this question. Not anymore. Carl Everett, one of baseball's great jackasses, almost demanded a trade on the same day Nomar Garciaparra announced he might need wrist surgery. Everett's relationship with manager Jimmy Williams, who is no Boy Scout himself, has become intolerable to the entire team. Gary Sheffield, anyone?

Replacing Nomar is the biggest problem, however. Last year he won another batting title while slugging .599. After his opening day surgery, Nomar won't be swinging a bat in Fenway for eight to 12 weeks, a devastating blow to Boston's playoff chances. Manny Ramirez is hurting too, and hamstring injuries tend to nag for months. Of course, the Sox still have Pedro. If Martinez receives decent support and stays healthy, he could win 25, especially if the umps call the high strike. But after him, the rotation is a bit shaky, as usual. Be happy, Boston fans. Instead of waiting until September to break your hearts, the Red Sox managed to do it before opening day. Enjoy your summers!

Will Mark McGwire stay healthy?

Without McGwire, the Cardinals are good enough to win their division, but let's face it: McGwire is the key to this team. He hit 32 homers last year in only 236 at-bats. If he plays 140 games, he should hit 50 to 55 home runs and draw 120 walks. Replacing him is impossible, especially since Will Clark isn't around to help this year.

If McGwire is healthy, the Cards are my pick for an eventual berth in the Series. Rick Ankiel's control problems seem to have diminished, though he could blow up at any time. Jim Edmonds will be great again, if not quite as good as last year, and Darryl Kile should win close to 20 games. The Cards beat the Braves last season before falling to the Mets in the NLCS, and the Mets may not make it that far this year.

Atlanta's fortunes, unsurprisingly, begin and end with its pitching. John Smoltz is back, though he's on the DL with elbow problems. Kevin Millwood will bounce back with a solid year, and Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are still two of the smartest hurlers in the game. The Braves' bullpen is also strong, with John Rocker and Kerry Lightenberg leading the way. They should beat out the Amazins, who will suffer without Mike Hampton, for the East title. But the Cards' explosive offense and good-enough pitching will prevail in a tight NLCS over the perennial also-ran Braves.

Can anyone in the American League dethrone the Yanks?

There is one very good reason why the Yankees will be headed back to the Series. There's also a very good reason why they won't. Let's start with the first, which is obviously Mike Mussina. Last year Mussina had a superb season, despite his 11-15 record. He posted a 3.79 ERA, third in the league, and finished with a career-high 237.2 innings pitched. That ugly record was due to the worst run support for any starting pitcher, courtesy of the woeful Orioles. With Mussina, Roger Clemens, and Andy Pettitte, the Yankees now have three of the five leaders in winning percentage among active starters. Add in one of the game's best postseason pitchers in Orlando Hernandez and übercloser Mariano Rivera, and it's hard to see how New York can fail in its quest for four straight titles.

Ah, but then there's the offense. Last season the Yanks won only 87 games—ninth in the majors—thanks largely to an offense that ranked sixth in the league. And most people believe the Bombers will have even more trouble scoring this year. Chuck Knoblauch, Tino Martinez, Paul O'Neill, and Scott Brosius have all seen their production drop off in recent years, and they're not getting any younger. The Yanks nearly lost to those pesky A's last year, who have improved themselves, despite the loss of Ben Grieve, by adding leadoff stud Johnny Damon.

The Indians and White Sox could both win the Central, but neither has enough to take out the Yanks. The Red Sox don't have a snowball's chance in hell. The A's may be the Yankee-hating world's only shot. But the Yanks' formidable staff and its apparent ability to play best when it matters most will prove too much for the young 'uns. Don't forget, as well, that if the Yanks get into trouble, George Steinbrenner will simply purchase himself a David Justice.

World Series: Yankees over Cardinals, 4-2, behind Mussina's second victory of the series for the four-peat. Choke on that, Dan Duquette.

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