An expert's view

INTERVIEW BY RACHEL KAMINS

Yale Herald: Was there a difference between the Chinese government's reaction to the spy place incident and the reaction of the people? Is this typical?

Jonathan Spence: The most important historical contrast is with 1999, the United States' accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Three people were killed then. People talking to the Chinese about that felt that the government was orchestrating their protests and the people in the streets, throwing rocks, hadn't at first minded so much until the government organized the demonstrations. In this case, the government wanted to make sure that it understood its own public, which was really quite angry. It's a big shift in only two years.

YH: Why was the Chinese public so upset?

JS: There were a good many frustrations in China at that moment. Relations with the United States were getting messy at the end of the Clinton administration. The World Trade Organization (WTO) situation is getting tangled. Congress seems unhelpful. The Chinese felt too much help was given to Taiwan. There is a wish to stop the Americans from snooping around. China feels its navy and its air force are getting stronger and they believe they can protest this treatment. The people are happy to see that a Chinese aircraft bugged an American spy plane. Until recently, due to the state of their technology, that was not possible.

YH: Will this conflict have a lasting effect on trade relations between China and the U.S.?

JS: Nothing serious as compared to the WTO entry. It's hard to read the motives of the protestors; maybe some of them want to derail the WTO agreement while China explores different options for trade with other countries on other terms.

YH: Will there be ramifications of Taiwan's struggle for independence from the Beijing government?

JS: I feel this instance makes it harder for the United States to proceed with its sale of sophisticated arms to Taiwan. The U.S. is in a weird situation, unanticipated and unplanned for. The debate is over what kind of sophisticated equipment you want to sell. There's a sense that China backed down a bit on its demands in this situation and that maybe in turn the U.S. will do the same on its help to Taiwan—maybe sell a lower class of equipment. But America has not made any pledge to do that. The bargaining chips remain on the Americans' side, and the Chinese know that there is very strong interest in the U.S. to help Taiwan win independence.

Sterling Professor of History Jonathan Spence is a leading expert on the history of China.  

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